As gold continues its record-breaking rally in late 2025, reaching a spot price of approximately $4,380 per ounce, Ed Yardeni has raised the bar for where the precious metal might head next. According to his latest research notes, Yardeni believes gold is on a trajectory to reach $5,000 by 2026 and potentially hit the five-figure mark—$10,000 per ounce—by 2028 or 2029.
The "Roaring 2020s" Thesis
Yardeni’s bullish outlook is rooted in his "Roaring 2020s" scenario, where he draws parallels between the current decade and the productivity-led boom of the 1920s. However, he also identifies a unique long-term correlation: the S&P 500 and gold are both racing toward the 10,000 milestone.
"If you put the two on the exact same chart, you see that their long-term trend is almost identical," Yardeni noted. He suggests that while they are inversely related in the short term, the macro-economic forces of the current era are pushing both assets to historic heights.
Drivers of the $10,000 Target
Yardeni points to several "tectonic shifts" in the global economy that are fueling this gold rush:
- The 'Gold Put' by Central Banks: Emerging economies are aggressively diversifying their reserves away from the U.S. dollar, opting for physical gold as a hedge against sanctions and currency risk.
- Geopolitical Volatility: Ongoing trade tensions and the reordering of global alliances—particularly involving the U.S. and China—are driving investors toward safe-haven assets.
- The Debt Burden: With massive public debt in developed nations, investors are increasingly betting on gold as a "non-monetary" store of value, fearing that governments will allow inflation to rise to erode debt.
- China’s Wealth Shift: The collapse of the Chinese housing market has left millions of households looking for alternative places to park their savings, with gold emerging as the primary beneficiary.
A "Physical Bitcoin"
Interestingly, Yardeni has referred to gold as the "Physical Bitcoin," noting that it is capturing the same "animal spirits" that have driven the crypto market. As institutional and retail FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) begins to creep in, the momentum could carry the metal through its current ascending channel to reach Yardeni’s ambitious targets.
While skeptics warn that such a surge would require a 1970s-style inflationary spiral, Yardeni remains confident that the current "path of least resistance" for gold is decidedly upward.
