Marriage registrations in China fell by almost 10% during the first nine months of this year and that could lead to another drop in births as the country continues to struggle with population decline and an ageing society.
China registered 4.648 million marriage registrations in January–September 2026, down 504,000 (9.8%) year on year, according to data released by the Ministry of Civil Affairs.
The latest figures suggest the recovery in marriages seen last year may not be repeated this time around. Demographers have also warned that fewer marriages could mean a further drop in births in 2027 as childbirth in China “is still closely tied to marriage”.
The development adds to China’s demographic woes rising living costs, delayed marriages, falling fertility and a shrinking population.
China Records 4.648 Million Marriages in First Nine Months of 2026
The Ministry of Civil Affairs of China reported that 4.648 million marriages were registered in the country between January and September 2026.
This is a decrease of 9.8% from the 5.152 million marriages recorded during the same period in 2025.
The latest figures also represent the lowest January-September marriage total in 18 years, reports said citing official data.
The downturn has been especially pronounced in the third quarter. Marriage registrations fell to around 1.37 million during July-September (-15% y/y).
The numbers show that the increase in 2025 wasn’t necessarily the start of a sustained recovery in marriage registrations.
“The latest figures show full year marriage registrations could fall again in 2026 as well,” said He Yafu, an independent demographer in Guangdong province.
Why are fewer marriages raising concerns about birth rates?
Marriage and childbirth are still closely related in Chinese society. Births outside marriage can occur but most children in the country are born to married couples.
Therefore a decline in marriages may influence the number of births in subsequent years.
Demographers have said fewer couples getting married in 2026 could mean lower birth numbers in 2027.
China had 7.92 million births in 2025 versus 9.54 million in 2024 (a decline of about 17% year on year).
The country’s birth rate also fell to 5.63 births per 1,000 people in 2025 the lowest since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.
“Marriage figures don’t predict future birth numbers but the latest decline has raised concerns about long-term population trends in the country,” he said. “That is one more thing to worry about.”
China's Population Declines for the Fourth Consecutive Year
China’s falling marriage and birth numbers are part of a broader demographic trend.
The National Bureau of Statistics said China’s population fell by about 3.39 million in 2025 to around 1.405 billion.
This was the fourth consecutive year of population decline.
The country is also ageing rapidly: older people are becoming more numerous while the number of children and young adults shrinks.
A smaller working-age population could pose long-term problems for economic growth, labour supply, healthcare services and pension systems.
The demographic shift is especially important for China because its economy has historically benefited from a large workforce and domestic consumer market.
Why Are Young Chinese People Delaying Marriage?
A number of economic and social factors are affecting changing attitudes towards marriage and family formation in China.
1. Rising Cost of Living
Housing costs, education costs and everyday living costs have made marriage and raising children financially difficult for many young people.
In major Chinese cities purchasing a home can be expensive and wedding expenses may push up the price further.
2. Uncertain Employment Conditions
Employment insecurity and future income can impact decisions about marriage and parenthood.
Young people with uncertain careers may prefer to delay major financial and family commitments.
3. High Childcare and Education Expenses
Raising children in China can be expensive childcare, schooling, healthcare and extracurricular activities.
These costs can deter couples who are unsure about their financial ability to raise a family.
4. Changing Social Attitudes
Marriage is seen more and more as a personal choice rather than an expected milestone by some younger people.
More people are now focusing on education, professional development, financial independence and personal goals before marriage.
Delayed marriages also reduce the period during which couples may choose to have children.
China Introduces Measures to Encourage Marriage and Childbirth
The Chinese government has put forward several initiatives to address declining marriage and birth numbers.
These are childcare subsidies, expanded preschool support, financial aid for families and measures to reduce the cost of raising children.
The country also changed its rules for marriage registration. Since May 10, 2025 couples can register marriages in different regions without being bound by the location of their household registration.
The change was made “to make it easier for couples who live and work away from their registered hometowns”.
Some local governments have also provided marriage incentives, childcare support and other financial benefits to encourage family formation.
Yet the latest marriage figures show that administrative changes and financial incentives have not yet reversed the broad downward trend.
What Does China’s Marriage Decline Mean for Its Economy?
A long term decline in marriages and births could have effects beyond family formation.
Fewer births today could lead to a smaller workforce in the future affecting productivity, consumer demand and economic growth.
An ageing population can also put pressure on healthcare services, retirement systems and public finances.
China may have a growing need to support an ever increasing number of older citizens in a country with a relatively smaller working age population.
The decline could also hit industries related to weddings, housing, childcare, education and consumer products.
However the economic impact will depend on several factors: productivity growth, retirement policies, labour participation and government capacity to respond to demographic change.
China's Demographic Challenge Continues Despite Government Measures
China’s latest marriage figures show how hard it is to reverse a long-term demographic decline.
The 9.8% drop in registrations during the first nine months of this year follows a temporary recovery in 2025 and adds to concerns about the country’s future birth numbers.
Although the government has introduced financial incentives and administrative reforms, economic pressures and changing social attitudes still affect decisions about marriage and parenthood.
The birth statistics coming next year will give us a clearer idea of how the decline in marriages affects population growth. For now, the latest figures highlight the demographic challenges facing the world’s second largest economy.
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