The United States is seeing record numbers of Americans voting ahead of the 2026 midterm elections; nearly 47.9 million have already cast ballots before Election Day. Record early voting numbers have been a national story as registered Democrats are outvoting Republicans by far. (According to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab, 47,922,669 early votes had been recorded nationwide by midday on October 30; that number already beat the previous midterm early voting record of about 45.9 million ballots cast in 2022.)
The latest numbers show that Democrats are ahead right now in early voters in states where party registration is recorded. Registered Democrats make up about 44 per cent of early ballots; registered Republicans 31 per cent; unaffiliated voters and members of smaller parties 25 per cent.
That difference has been noticed by political analysts because it suggests Democratic supporters are out earlier than Republicans in an election that could shift power in the US Congress: Party registration does not necessarily mean which candidate a voter supported, after all but don’t take these figures as a prediction of the outcome of the election.
Early voting has been highest in some of the most politically competitive states where closely contested Senate races could decide control of the upper chamber. Texas is one of the biggest examples: more than six million people reportedly cast early ballots by October 28, and in-person voting participation was about 50 per cent higher than at this stage during the 2022 midterm elections.
North Carolina also saw a big increase in early voting, up nearly 37 per cent compared with the same period four years ago. That shows how important battleground states are in this election.
South Carolina has now surpassed its entire early voting total from the 2022 midterm elections by October 26 (with several days of early voting left). It was up about 83 per cent compared with the last midterm cycle. Kansas is also seeing a big jump in advance voting, with early ballots more than 65 per cent ahead of those at that stage in 2022.
Georgia broke its state midterm record for early in-person voting on October 29: women cast about 56 per cent of all ballots in Georgia by that date, compared to 44 per cent for men. These numbers show that participation isn’t limited to one state.
Political observers have also noted the participation of younger voters and minority communities. University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald (who heads up the Election Lab) says that in states that collect demographic data, African American, Hispanic and Asian American voters are more engaged than they were in 2012; those groups could change the dynamics in close races.
Higher engagement among independent and unaffiliated voters is another development to watch for: They may decide whether competitive races are won or lost. But analysts say early voting data only gives a partial picture of the overall electorate and can’t tell which party will ultimately win.
Democrats may win early, but Republicans could close the gap on Election Day. Historically, Republican voters tend to vote on Election Day, whereas Democratic supporters have generally voted more through early voting and mail-in ballots, so it is hard to make any conclusions about turnout based on early numbers alone. Experts have also warned that just because early voting increased does not mean overall voter turnout will reach a new record; some Americans are just choosing to vote earlier than in previous elections.
The 2026 US midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, and voters will decide which House of Representatives and Senate seats, as well as several state-level seats, will be up for election. The outcome will have major consequences for President Donald Trump’s administration in the two years remaining on his term; Republicans want to defend their congressional majorities; Democrats want big gains and possibly control of one or both chambers.
Early voting has already surpassed the previous midterm record, so the election is shaping up to be a tightly watched political contest, but it is too soon to say who will win because votes cast before Election Day and on Election Day count too.
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