A new climate study from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab has raised concerns about the possible health impact of the unusually strong El Niño developing in 2026. India could suffer about 15,800 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, compared to the expected number during an average year, according to the report.
That projection has attracted national attention across India, particularly southern states and has also renewed public interest in a recent prediction made by Kodi Mutt seer Dr Shivayogi Rajendra Swamiji regarding extreme weather and flooding in South India. Yet the scientific report and the religious prediction have very different weather scenarios.
The Climate Impact Lab, a joint project of the University of Chicago's Energy Policy Institute, estimates that global land temperatures may be about 1.2 degrees Celsius higher than normal over the next 6 months on account of the current El Niño.
The unusual warmth could result in 44% more extremely hot days than would normally be expected, they predict. The report says, globally, 451,000 new heat-related deaths are expected during the first six months of the El Niño event, and countries in the Global South are expected to bear a larger share of heat deaths. India alone will have about 15,800 extra heat deaths.
The 15,800 figure is not a prediction that 15,800 people will die. It is a statistical estimate of excess heat-related mortality versus an average year. The researchers used historical relationships between temperature and mortality to estimate the additional number of deaths that could occur under the forecast conditions. The Climate Impact Lab has also given an uncertainty range around the India estimate so we are not looking at a given future death toll.
The study also points to a strong seasonal component. Of 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India during the 6-month period of the study, approximately 7,400 are expected for December 2026 to February 2027.
The researchers say heat-related mortality could continue to increase after the current forecast window, particularly as India enters its warmer months in 2027. Thus, the current El Niño could be seen as a manifestation of the type of extreme temperatures that could become more common as the climate warms.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean warm up in a very unusual way. Its effect can be felt far beyond the Pacific Ocean and can have a significant impact on rainfall and temperature in all parts of the world. In India, El Niño is usually associated with weakening or even blocking monsoon rainfall and hotter conditions.
However, the exact effect of El Niño will depend on each region and on each El Niño event so that it does not mean that every part of India will experience drought or extreme heat in the same way.
Against this scientific forecast, a recent statement by Kodi Mutt Swamiji has been brought up again on social media and among the general public. The seer had spoken about the possibility of severe flooding in South India, and in a similar fashion to the devastating floods in Nepal.
He also spoke about seawater entering inland areas and villages getting affected by severe flooding. These comments have been reinforced since the Climate Impact Lab paper and are now being widely quoted.
But there is a distinct difference between the two accounts. The Climate Impact Lab study is a scientific, data-based projection that is primarily about extreme heat and associated mortality. Its forecast includes unusually high temperatures, more extremely hot days, and an increase in heat-related deaths. It also addresses the bigger risks that are droughts, wildfires, flooding, and changes in rainfall patterns caused by El Niño.
The Kodi Mutt prediction, on the other hand, is about extreme rainfall, flooding, and possible seawater intrusion. According to Swamiji reports, though the southwest monsoon could be weak in certain areas, the northeast or winter season rainfall might be beneficial in the case of lakes and reservoirs and would assist farmers who suffered crop losses during the earlier season. So the two stories should not be taken as the same.
The contradiction is important. El Niño does not mean that every place will experience drought or heat. Changes in atmospheric circulation can produce different weather conditions in different places, with less rainfall in certain areas and extreme rainfall in others. The Climate Impact Lab itself has noted that El Niño can bring droughts, wildfires, and flooding along with higher temperatures.
So the viral comparison between the scientific study and the Kodi Mutt prediction should be taken into account carefully. The Chicago study gives a quantitative climate and mortality projection based on models and historical data, whereas the Swamiji's statement is a religious prediction rather than a scientific forecast.
They may both refer broadly to difficult weather conditions, but they identify different primary risks—extreme heat and associated mortality in the scientific report, versus severe flooding and heavy rainfall in the prediction.
For South India, the coming months will thus be closely watched by weather agencies, health authorities, farmers, and disaster-management officials. The Climate Impact Lab says its projections are meant to help governments identify areas where preventive measures can reduce heat-related deaths.
As the El Niño episode develops, actual temperature, rainfall, and mortality data will ultimately determine how closely the current projections match conditions on the ground.
