Bitcoin is currently experiencing bouts of extreme volatility today. After hitting a record well above $126,000 at the end of 2025, analysts are noting the market has gotten stuck in what their peers refer to as a “sustained bear phase.” The $65,000 target is right now being scoped by traders and is a critical line in the sand.
The Market Reality
At present, the cryptocurrency market is witnessing a great correction. After a promising 2024 and peak of explosion in October 2025, Bitcoin has gone back severely. Although this comes off as negative, its trading is now a solid part of a positive cycle. On Tuesday, February 5 BTC sits at $72,000-$75,000 but sentiment at decentralized prediction platforms such as Polymarket has moved in the direction of bearish territory. Bitcoin now has an 82% chance of falling below $65,000 before the end of the current quarter, traders currently expect.
Bearish Case: Why Those Traders Have Worry
A number of technical and macro elements are bearing down in regards to digital gold:
- The 365-Day Moving Average Breach: Analysts based at CryptoQuant highlight Bitcoin’s fall off its 365-day average in November 2025 as one of the most common signs that the markets have moved from bull to bear position.
- ETF Outflows: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have been cool. Large outflows of capital over the past three weeks have been posted, indicating that institutions “fast money” appears to be turning again into traditional defensive investments or Treasury bills.
- The “Saylor Level”: Price dips close to the average purchase cost for MicroStrategy, the world’s largest corporate holder, is the first time Bitcoin’s price has fallen as close for a year now. That has fueled fear of possible deleveraging if prices continue to shift downward.
A Healthy Correction: the Bullish Counter-Argument
Not everyone is sounding the alarm. And some institutional observers -- including from Standard Chartered and JPMorgan -- view the current dip as a necessary "reset" in the wake of the 2025 rally, which was unsustainable. They claim that:
- Cycles in the Past: After every post-halving year of high volatility, Bitcoin typically sees a 40–50% drawdown before consolidating its way up again for fresh start.
- Basis of Hope: Despite the sell-off, such major asset managers like Fidelity, though, say their outlook is still bullish for the long-term. They view a "stagnation phase" rather than a complete collapse. A base case is for a return to $100,000 by late 2026.
Next comes the "base," something for traders to start building. If Bitcoin can’t keep holds above $72,000 support, the next major liquidity pocket resides somewhere between $62,000 and $65,000. Breaking below this might set off a chain of liquidations, driving the asset closer to the $55,000 threshold.
So for now the mantra on the street is “patience.”
As Julio Moreno of CryptoQuant pointed out, “Bear market bottoms take months, not days, to form.”
