After a parabolic rise that pushed the price of gold to almost ₹1,80,779 per 10 grams in January 2026, the “yellow metal” faces a sudden reversal. Market analysts are now cautioning that if current geopolitical developments persist gold could fall below the ₹1,00,000 threshold for the first time in more than a year.
The "Russia-US Deal": A Monetary Earthquake
At the heart of this bearish vision is an internal memo from the Kremlin, suggesting that Russia and the Trump administration could embark on some dramatic economic cooperation.
- The Return to the Dollar: The proposal lays out a potential roadmap for a return to a U.S. Dollar settlement system for Russian energy exports, basically reversing the aggressive “de-dollarization” path that had driven gold’s 2025 run.
- Seven Key Pillars of Cooperation: The deal includes things like joint ventures in LNG and oil, cooperation on critical minerals (like lithium and platinum), and the modernization of Russian aviation operations using US planes.
- Impact on Gold: Central banks, mainly Russia and China, have long bought record volumes of gold to fortify themselves against dollar-based sanctions; a Russia-US reconciliation takes away the main “fear factor” that drove gold to almost $5,600 per ounce worldwide.
- Corrected From The Peak: MCX gold is already correcting at a rate of almost 15% from its January highs – trading within February 17, 2026, around the ₹1.55 lakh range.
- The Target: As “Grand Bargain” emerges with a possible Ukraine peace agreement, the safe haven demand for gold will be wiped out, analysts have told The Star. That could drive COMEX gold back to $3,000 per ounce by 2027, taking Indian rates below the ₹1 lakh.
Key Factors Driving the Price Crash
| Factor | Market Impact |
| Russia-US Trade Deal | Reduces the need for gold as a neutral reserve asset. |
| Stronger US Dollar | High US jobs data and sticky interest rates make gold more expensive to hold. |
| De-escalation of Conflict | A potential peace deal in Ukraine removes the "geopolitical premium" from gold. |
| Profit Booking | Institutional investors are moving capital from bullion back into AI-driven tech stocks. |
What Should Investors Do?
“One thing you need to do is to be very vigilant for risk,” says Manoj Kumar Jain, a market veteran, who says that even though longer term trends are cooling, there is a lot of volatility in the near term. “Investors now expect a ‘weekly closing’ support level at $4,770 per ounce.” Formalized agreement between Russia and the US would also allow the “war economy” back to a “trade economy,” which could represent the end of the greatest gold bull run of the decade.
