Pakistan is also considering constitutional changes in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Gilgit-Baltistan as it closely watches developments in India-China relations and the two countries’ efforts to resolve their long-standing border dispute. Some government officials in Pakistan are mulling whether to consider an interim constitutional arrangement that would give the two territories a status closer to that of provinces.
The changes could be made via the much-discussed 28th Constitutional Amendment or through legislation. Islamabad is also considering whether Article 1, Clause 2 of the Constitution of Pakistan could be amended. The provision defines the territories of Pakistan and could be very significant from a constitutional and geopolitical perspective.
The talks are occurring at the same time when India and China are in the process of stabilising bilateral ties after years of tension along their disputed Himalayan border. Pakistan is closely watching these developments because changes in the India-China territorial equation could have far-reaching implications for the Kashmir issue and the existing India, Pakistan and China positions.
Why India-China Talks Matter to Pakistan
The Kashmir region is also subject to overlapping territorial claims between three countries. India administers Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh while Pakistan administers PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan and China controls Aksai Chin. The territorial picture was further complicated by the 1963 Sino-Pakistan boundary agreement under which Pakistan ceded the Shaksgam Valley to China. India has rejected that arrangement.
With that in mind, any eventual understanding between Delhi and Beijing on the disputed border might require Islamabad to rethink its strategic calculations. Pakistani officials are therefore now analyzing whether the constitution of territories under their jurisdiction needs to change given changing regional circumstances.
The potential constitutional move does not necessarily mean that Pakistan is pulling back on its long-standing position on the Kashmir issue. It is believed that officials are considering an interim arrangement that would provide PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan a better constitutional clarity or a province-like arrangement but would preserve Islamabad’s larger position on Jammu and Kashmir.
Possible Changes to Article 1
One of the most relevant and potentially significant options is an amendment to Article 1(2) of Pakistan’s Constitution. If the provision were changed, it could influence how territories within Pakistan’s administration are defined.
The exact wording of any proposed amendment has not yet been finalized and it is unclear whether Article 1(2) would ever be changed. Similarly, it is still not clear whether the 28th Amendment would become the vehicle for such reforms.
If such a province-like arrangement were ever implemented it would represent an important departure from the current constitutional framework of Gilgit-Baltistan and PoK. Both territories have historically had a unique place in Pakistan’s administrative and political system but not as distinct as the provinces of India recognized by the Constitution.
Gilgit-Baltistan's Strategic Importance
Gilgit-Baltistan has a particular strategic significance being situated around China, India and Afghanistan. It is also part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), so the region is important to Pakistan’s economic and security calculations.
Pakistan has introduced administrative and legal reforms in Gilgit-Baltistan over the years, but questions surrounding its constitutional status have remained politically sensitive. A more formal province-like setup might be able to address some of those issues, but it could also lead to political debate over the wider Kashmir issue.
PoK is also in a sensitive position in the Pakistani constitutional and political discourse. Islamabad administers the territory but has historically made a distinction between it and Pakistan’s provinces.
India's 2019 Reorganisation Remains a Reference Point
Pakistan's current deliberations also come years after India’s major constitutional and administrative changes in Jammu and Kashmir. Under Article 370, the Indian government removed the special constitutional status of Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019, and so Article 35A no longer applied. The former state was then folded into the Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.
For New Delhi, any constitutional changes proposed by Pakistan are likely to be closely scrutinised. However, the possible Pakistani framework is not a direct result of India’s 2019 decision. The political, constitutional and territorial conditions are different and Islamabad is sticking to its position on Kashmir.
China's Balancing Act
China adds a layer of complexity to the situation. Beijing is an important economic and strategic partner for Pakistan as well via CPEC and broader defence and infrastructure cooperation. At the same time China has an interest in stable relations with India because of their economic relationship and the need to manage tensions along their disputed border.
For Pakistan, better relations between India and China would bring both opportunities and uncertainty. Islamabad will be watching whether the peace between Beijing and New Delhi will eventually lead to progress on territorial issues and in areas along the wider Himalayan border.
A significant India-China boundary understanding could potentially change the strategic calculations around Kashmir. This is reportedly one reason Pakistani policymakers are looking at constitutional options for territories under their control before the regional situation develops further.
All these changes are currently in the making and no final constitutional package has been announced. The status of PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan, the possible amendment of Article 1(2) and the role of a potential 28th Constitutional Amendment are still unanswered.
The discussions however illustrate the extent to which Pakistan’s constitutional decisions in the domestic context are closely linked to wider geopolitical developments. As India and China work to resolve their boundary issue and restart bilateral cooperation, Islamabad seems to be preparing for different outcomes and weighing how each could affect its position in the wider Kashmir dispute.
