The Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree increasing the authorised number of military personnel of the Russian Armed Forces by 15,500 military personnel, bringing the total number of military personnel to 1,550,500. As Russia continues its war in Ukraine, this has raised speculation that Moscow is preparing for another mobilisation.
The decree, signed on September 28, sets the total authorised strength of the Russian Armed Forces at 2,441,630 personnel, including 1,550,500 military personnel. The previous authorised military strength was 1,535,000, so the new order is an increase of 15,500 military positions. The decree also requires the Russian government to give the Defence Ministry the funds from the federal budget to carry out the increase.
The new order is significant because it is the fourth increase in Russia's authorised military establishment this year. The last rise came in the period from March, June and July. Between the four increases, Russia's authorised establishment has risen by 52,500 positions, including 50,500 military personnel.
But the new decree does not itself announce a new mobilisation. It establishes the authorised staffing level of the armed forces rather than ordering civilians or reservists to report for military service. The document does not offer a specific explanation for why the authorised strength is being increased.
Why The Mobilisation Question Has Returned
It is important to distinguish between army expansion and mobilisation since Russia has been in a constant supply of troops during the Ukraine war. Moscow increasingly has made use of contract recruitment and volunteers to maintain its military personnel, and not to have another large-scale mobilisation as was seen with the controversial partial mobilisation in September 2022.
The 2022 mobilisation saw the call-up of reservists after major battlefield setbacks for Russian forces. Since then, the Kremlin has generally focused on contract recruitment rather than making another comparable mass mobilisation.
The latest increase therefore does not establish that another mobilisation is underway. Instead, it formally raises the ceiling for the number of military personnel the Russian Armed Forces can maintain.
At the same time, the increase is indicative of Russia’s continued expansion of the formal size of its military. The frequency of the changes is also significant: the September decree is the fourth increase in seven months. Meduza reported that Russia had only increased its authorised military strength three times during the first four years of the full-scale war, compared to four increases already in 2023.
Ukraine War continues to drive Manpower Demand
Russia’s military expansion comes as fighting continues across Ukraine. Both sides have suffered big losses from this long war and drone attacks, artillery strikes and defensive fortifications have made combat on the battlefield more urgent.
The Kremlin has continued to recruit soldiers through contracts and other channels. In the past, Russian officials have pointed to contract recruitment as a way to keep troop numbers down without resorting to another massive mobilisation.
Ukraine has had something of a different view on Russia's recruitment efforts. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that Moscow is mobilising more people using various recruitment channels. Ukraine also pointed out that Russia’s efforts to recruit foreign workers for its war effort have also been highlighted by Ukrainian officials.
Recent reporting has also focused on North Korean military personnel in Russia. Zelenskyy has said thousands of North Korean troops are present on Russian soil and more troops are being prepared for deployment. That is all part of a picture of Russia needing more manpower and military support as the war continues.
What Putin's Decree actually means?
The key point is that an increase in authorised military strength is different from a mobilisation order.
Putin’s September 28 decree establishes a larger official staffing structure for the armed forces. That means Russia has authorised room for an additional 15,500 military personnel and has instructed the government to allocate funding for the expanded establishment. It does not, by itself, specify that 15,500 reservists or civilians are being immediately called up.
The measure could therefore be implemented through recruitment, contract service and other personnel channels rather than a formal mass mobilisation.
But the increasing authorised strength shows that Moscow is still adjusting the size of its military institution in the face of the Ukraine conflict. The new order is however nothing new and is part of a general pattern of military expansion in 2023 rather than an isolated event.
For now, there is no indication in the decree itself that Russia has announced a new nationwide mobilisation. The development is better described as an expansion of the authorised military establishment. If Moscow later begins to introduce other recruitment measures or even a formal mobilisation, that would be a separate matter.
The latest move will nevertheless be closely watched by Ukraine and foreign countries as Russia is still a key player in keeping personnel levels high as the war goes on. With the war entering a new phase, contract recruitment, volunteers, foreign personnel and mobilisation will be a key issue for Russia’s military planning.
