Under these circumstances, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast above-normal rainfall over most regions of India in May 2026, offering some reprieve in the current rising summer temperatures across many regions of the country.
According to the latest weather forecast given in this month’s newspaper, rain in May is “most likely to be above normal” at more than 110 per cent of the LPA. Several regions are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, providing relief from water shortages and allowing for farm production in advance of the kharif season.
The IMD also indicated some areas of east India, northeast India, and east-central regions could see below-normal rainfall in the month. While the weather forecasts are good, the weather agency has warned that some regions will still experience above-normal heatwave days.
Severe heatwave days during the year will be higher than normal throughout May, with heatwaves especially likely to occur in sections of the east coast, the Himalayas and Gujarat and Maharashtra, some reports suggest. Its maximum temperatures are forecast to remain either at or below normal across much of the country, potentially mitigating severe daytime temperatures, the IMD said.
But southern peninsular India, parts of northwest India, and parts of the northeast could still experience above-normal daytime temperatures. Night temperatures are also projected to remain warmer than usual in most regions of India. IMD Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra recently said that while much higher-than-normal minimum temperatures may be expected across several regions, some parts of northwest and central India are expected to become normal to below-normal by night.
For instance, climate experts say that the changing climate of the Pacific Ocean in India has a significant impact on India’s weather patterns this year. The IMD stated that neutral conditions are gradually heading towards El Niño, which could be observed during the southwest monsoon season.
In India, El Niño is typically associated with fewer rains in the monsoons and warmer temperatures. The May rainfall projection, especially, comes after the IMD made a previous forecast with a below-normal southwest monsoon for 2026, with rains projected to be roughly 92 percent of the long-term average.
Meteorologists say that unusually heavy rain during May could lift soil moisture up and provide farmers with an early head start on their sowing operations. The excess rainfall it brought in some parts of the country is also something some experts have worried will impede the harvesting of late rabi crops and cause waterlogging and crop destruction.
