After several days of widespread heavy rainfall that disrupted normal life across Karnataka, IMD (India Meteorological Department) has forecast a gradual weakening of monsoon activity after July 10.
In fact, rainfall will still be heavy in the coastal belt and Western Ghats, but in general the intensity of rainfall is expected to be lower, which will be of some relief to residents, farmers and local authorities.
The last season of intense rainfall affected several districts such as Dakshina Kannada, Udupi, Uttara Kannada, Shivamogga, Chikkamagaluru, Kodagu, Hassan and Bengaluru. Overflowing rivers, waterlogged roads, landslides in hills and transportation services were affected as southwest monsoon remained very active in Karnataka.
According to the IMD's latest forecast, rainfall activity is expected to become more localized after July 10. Coastal Karnataka, which has been experiencing widespread heavy to very heavy rainfall over the past week, will see only isolated heavy showers before conditions gradually improve. Interior districts are also expected to experience scattered rainfall rather than continuous downpours.
Weather experts suggest that the diminished rainfall intensity of monsoon activity in the short run is due to changes in large-scale atmospheric conditions, including a less favourable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the reduced likelihood of fresh low-pressure systems forming over the surrounding seas. These factors are expected to weaken monsoon activity across southern and western India over the coming days.
Even though rain is expected to ease down, officials say people shouldn’t be put off. Soil in much of Karnataka is saturated due to continuous rainfall and landslides, mudslides and falling trees are likely to occur, especially in the Western Ghats and in the hilly areas. Disaster management officials are monitoring vulnerable areas and have advised residents living near rivers and slopes as well.
Kodagu, Chikkamagaluru, Hassan districts and other districts are still taking precautions such as monitoring river levels and checking for landslides. Tourists are also advised to avoid visiting waterfalls, hiking trails, riverbanks and other natural attractions until the weather calms down.
Bengaluru has been experiencing intermittent showers for a number of days, causing traffic congestion, localized flooding and daily commuting troubles. While the city is likely to receive occasional rain and thunderstorms, meteorologists say the intensity of rainfall will decrease after July 10 and there is no reason for long-term waterlogging.
Farmers across Karnataka are celebrating the abundant rainfall, which has produced more moisture in the soil and replenished reservoirs. However, agricultural experts say heavy rainfall can damage standing crops, delay sowing operations in some areas and affect horticultural production. A steady decrease in rainfall may therefore benefit both agriculture and harvesting activities in several districts.
The state’s reservoirs and dams have also had water levels rise after the recent monsoon spell. Water resource agencies are monitoring inflows closely and residents living near major reservoirs are being advised to be informed of any precautionary water releases that may be necessary.
The IMD has said that although the most intense phase of the current rainfall episode is expected to moderate, light to moderate rain and thunderstorms may continue in many parts of Karnataka in the coming week. Coastal districts are expected to continue getting periodic showers due to persistent moisture from the Arabian Sea, although the frequency and intensity are expected to decrease compared to earlier this week.
Officials have advised citizens to continue exercising caution during thunderstorms by avoiding open fields, staying away from swollen rivers and streams, and refraining from driving through flooded roads. Motorists are also encouraged to check traffic and weather advisories before undertaking long-distance travel, particularly in ghat sections where road conditions may remain unstable.
Emergency response teams are on standby in Karnataka to respond to any weather-related events. Municipal bodies are working to clear drainage systems, remove fallen trees, and re-establish normal services in areas affected by heavy rainfall.
Though the forecast indicates we could see some improvement in the weather situation after July 10, meteorologists stress that monsoon patterns can change quickly. Residents should follow the IMD and district office’s official updates rather than just follow unverified weather information on the internet.
The weakening of heavy rainfall might bring some relief after a week of intense monsoon activity. But there is still rain season going on in Karnataka which means there will be rainfall and localized weather-related disruptions. Staying informed and following official advisories will remain essential as the monsoon progresses.
