Karnataka may experience a rise in temperatures over the next week as the southwest monsoon has weakened over several parts of the state. Rainfall activity is decreasing, and dry weather is prevailing in many districts; daytime temperatures are likely to be above normal. IMD scientist C.S. Patil said that temperatures in several parts of Karnataka could rise by another 1-3 degrees Celsius during the next week.
The change in weather pattern comes at a time when Karnataka would normally continue to get monsoon-related rain. But less cloud cover and rainfall have meant more sunshine during the day, so that land surface heats up faster.
Dry Weather Driving Temperature Rise
Several districts in Karnataka are mostly dry. Cloud cover has reduced a lot in many places, and the daytime sky is clear now. As direct sunlight gets more space on the earth’s surface, land temperatures have also been rising.
The decrease in rainfall over the last week or so has also contributed to this warming trend. Less soil moisture means less water available for moderating surface temperatures: The soil dries out faster under strong sunlight.
This combination of less rain, clear skies and decreasing soil moisture will keep temperatures elevated over the next few days.
Temperatures May Remain Above Normal for a Week
C.S. Patil said that temperatures in several parts of Karnataka will remain above normal for the next week as well. Temperatures could rise by 1 to 3 degrees Celsius in different places in the state.
The situation may change after September 16 when rainfall activity is expected to increase. Until then, people in several districts may have to live with stronger daytime heat even though September is still monsoon season.
Why Is Karnataka Receiving Less Rain?
Several broad atmospheric and oceanic factors are being cited for the weak rainfall activity: El Niño has been around, as has the behaviour of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The broader weather pattern has been affected.
These climate and atmospheric systems are not giving strong support for rainfall over Karnataka at present. Monsoon activity has weakened due to this, and prolonged dry spells have set in parts of the state.
The combination of these conditions is significant because rainfall during monsoon season helps in maintaining soil moisture, water resources and agricultural conditions.
Bengaluru Recording Temperatures Around 4°C Above Normal
Bengaluru is also experiencing unusually warm weather for this time of year. Maximum temperatures in the city have recently been around 32–33 degrees Celsius.
Normally Bengaluru’s maximum temperature in September is around 28–29 degrees Celsius. So the city is currently experiencing temperatures about 4 degrees Celsius above normal (September average).
Those warmer days could be more pronounced in the afternoon hours (on clear days with little rain). Cloud cover is less widespread, so more solar heating is occurring, which results in higher daytime temperatures.
North Karnataka Facing More Intense Heat
The warming trend is more pronounced in North Interior Karnataka. Kalaburagi has been recording temperatures of around 36 degrees Celsius, and several districts in the region have recorded temperatures 4–5 degrees Celsius above normal.
South Interior Karnataka is also experiencing above-normal temperatures (temperatures in several places are reportedly 4 degrees Celsius higher than the seasonal average).
The gap between calendar season and actual weather is therefore increasing (parts of the state even have summer-like heat despite the monsoon period being on).
Karnataka Rainfall Deficit at 26%
The weakening monsoon has also led to a big rainfall deficit across Karnataka. C.S Patil said that so far this year the state has received 26% less rainfall than normal.
Several districts still have rainfall shortages. Bengaluru’s deficit is the biggest; it got about 40–50% less rain than normal during the period under review.
The reduced rainfall affects not only temperatures but groundwater levels, agricultural activity, reservoirs and lakes and overall water availability.
Bengaluru May Receive Light Rain on September 11, 12 and 14
While Bengaluru will continue to have dry weather, light rain may occur in the city on September 11, 12 and 14. Weather experts have forecast light rain in the city on September 11, 12 and 14.
But showers alone may not be enough to turn the dry spell around completely. “More rainfall activity will start only after September 16,” said the IMD scientist quoted above.
So Bengaluru residents can expect warm afternoons interspersed with light showers over the next few days.
Temperature Concerns Could Continue in Coming Months
The effects of the current dry spell might not be limited to this week’s forecast. Moisture in reservoirs, lakes and soil will be lower; vegetation will be less so as well, all of which could lead to higher temperatures through the months ahead.
Less moisture in the land surface can change how heat is absorbed and released, so warmer local conditions could develop. So it will be very much a case of whether rainfall activity improves in the second half of September and replenishes soil and water resources.
Karnataka residents should brace for above-normal temperatures over the next week (North Interior Karnataka and Bengaluru). Light showers are possible in Bengaluru on September 11, 12 and 14, but rainfall activity will improve generally only after September 16.
The next few weeks will decide whether Karnataka’s weak monsoon gets a much-needed push or if dry and warmer conditions continue across the state.
