On the southwest monsoon withdrawal phase, rainfall activity in Rajasthan is expected to decline as it enters its withdrawal phase as the southwest monsoon has ended, according to the latest weather outlook from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Some parts of the state might still get showers and thunderstorms in the short term, but the intensity of rainfall is not expected to be the same overall.
The IMD’s Met Centre Jaipur has predicted that weather activity will remain more visible for some parts of East Rajasthan in the short term. The warning bulletin for East Rajasthan is thunderstorms and lightning through September 29, but no warning for September 30 and the following days.
In West Rajasthan, there is no warning listed for the period covered by the bulletin.
The changing weather pattern comes as the monsoon season approaches its usual withdrawal period over northwest India. Rajasthan has experienced spells of rain and thunderstorms during the latter part of September, with weather conditions varying considerably between districts.
It is also becoming obvious from the latest observation that rainfall has not been uniform in the state. In the IMD’s weather records for September 28, there was no rainfall at many stations (Ajmer, Alwar, Barmer, Bhilwara, Bikaner, and Jaipur) despite recent storms.
Temperatures were also below normal at some locations, which is an indication of the recent weather events.
The latest forecast indicates that residents in East Rajasthan should continue to monitor local weather updates through September 29 because thunderstorms and lightning remain part of the forecast. From September 30 onwards, the official subdivision warning indicates a reduction in such weather alerts.
The rainfall outlook is also important for agriculture, water resources, and daily life in the state. Rajasthan depends heavily on the southwest monsoon for water supply and agricultural activities. The seasonal decline in rainfall towards the end of September is thus a significant seasonal phenomenon.
At the national level, the monsoon has also shown considerable variation this year. Recent reports based on weather and water-resource data have shown uneven rainfall patterns across various parts of India, with the southwest monsoon approaching its seasonal withdrawal phase.
For Rajasthan, we expect a gradual transition to drier weather over the next few days, but isolated showers can be expected if they are supported by local weather conditions. The IMD is still making district-wise predictions and updates on rainfall status as conditions change in Rajasthan.
Residents, farmers, and travellers should keep track of the latest district-level weather advisories in the areas where thunderstorms or lightning are predicted, especially in the areas where rain is forecast to occur. But overall, we do seem to see that rainfall activity diminishes as September draws to a close.
