Under "Operation Epic Fury," which sees the United States ramp up its military campaign in the Middle East, a new kind of tension is shaking beneath the Nevada desert. More than 100 earthquakes have roused the area surrounding the Tonopah Test Range—a heavily classified facility commonly called "Area 52" over the last week, sparking speculation globally that Washington is working up underground nuclear testing again.
The seismic swarm, which has hit since March 1, is just days after the last nuclear weapons treaty expired and amid reports of strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure.
The “Area 52” Swarm
The seismic activity along the USGS site has been mostly focused within a radius of 50 miles, or 30 miles northwest, of the Tonopah Test Range known as Area 51.
- Magnitude: The majority were between 1.0 and 1.9, but a 4.3 magnitude quake on March 1 was experienced as far off as Las Vegas and Carson City.
- Where: The Department of Energy and Sandia National Laboratories have long relied on the Tonopah range for weapons reliability and for “fusing and firing” research.
Nuclear Test or natural event?
The timing of quakes has prompted online theorists and geopolitical analysts to infer the United States is sending subcritical (or even low-yield) nuclear detonations as indicators that Tehran is strong. But the seismologists are warning against the potential for catastrophe. “This is a very Nevada-style earthquake sequence,” Rowe said, observing that the depth of these (around 1km to 16km) is in keeping with earth's natural inclination to move as one, and not a terrorist detonation of any kind.
Expert insight: Modern seismic monitoring can differentiate between an earthquake and a nuclear explosion with simplicity. Nuclear explosions create some "symmetric" outward pressure, causing a distinct "P-wave" to emerge that does not mimic the complex shear waves of a natural fault slip.
Geopolitical "Perfect Storm"
The "coincidence" is hard to ignore from science's point of view. The U.S. is currently embroiled in a hot war with Iran following the February 28 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Also, the Strait of Hormuz is still blocked and global oil prices have soared. In this high-stakes environment, there could be a military escalation if one movement at any base was to make "nuclear" part of its mission statement.
In their statement, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) has found no "explosive" signature on the site, despite the fact that the Pentagon has neither officially commented on the Nevada activity. And yet for now, the desert is restless, leaving the rest of the world to wonder if it’s the Earth moving or the machinery of war.
