Israel’s political landscape remains unclear as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc is leading the latest polls and winning 56 seats out of more than 66% of the votes in the latest election with more than 66% of the vote counted.
But despite the lead, the bloc is not yet a majority of the parliamentary majority that the government needs to form its own government.
According to partial data released by the Central Elections Committee of Israel, Netanyahu’s bloc had secured 56 seats as of 9:20 a.m. (CET) on October 28, with about 66.2% of the boxes counted.
On the other hand, the opposition camp led by Gadi Eisenkot was projected to win 48 seats, while Arab parties were projected to win 16 seats.
Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, has 120 seats. To form a government with a parliamentary majority, a political bloc needs the support of at least 61 lawmakers. With Netanyahu’s alliance having 56 seats, it would need more support from other parties to cross that threshold.
The final distribution of seats will depend on the remaining ballots and the official counting process. Since Israel is a proportional representation electoral system, parliamentary seats are allocated according to the votes received by political parties, as per the electoral laws of the country.
The opposition's performance will determine the next government. Gadi Eisenkot and the other opposition leaders have tried to challenge Netanyahu’s leadership, and how seats are shared among the opposition parties may affect whether they can form a different coalition.
Arab political parties, which together account for 16 seats in the reported figures, could also influence the overall parliamentary balance. But their involvement in government formation will depend on political differences, negotiations and the willingness of individual parties to support certain plans.
The remaining count could also include ballots that have been voted on in special ways and by military personnel and other eligible voters. As such, the final number of seats will be determined by such ballots, and it will be important to distinguish preliminary results from the official ones.
More importantly, in Israel, security issues and domestic politics are still deep. Netanyahu’s supporters have highlighted his approach to national security but his opponents have called for a change of leadership and a different political direction.
And although Netanyahu's bloc currently leads the seat count, the available figures do not establish whether he will be able to form a stable government.
The number of seats won by smaller parties, the final results and possible coalition agreements will all play a significant role in determining the outcome.
For now the Netanyahu-led bloc is at 56 seats, just five short of 61 needed for a parliamentary majority. If the counting goes on, the political future of Israel will be determined not only by whether the leading bloc will be able to secure the additional support to form a government but also by whether negotiations lead to a different political arrangement.
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