Tamil Nadu is embroiled in a political stalemate after the Assembly elections. Meanwhile, it’s all highly detailed in the process of unfolding a drama at scale and drama everywhere.
As an emerging political crisis became more chaotic and unpredictable, Karnataka Deputy Chief Minister and Congress figure D. K. Shivakumar, known by his party name as the party’s ‘troubleshooter’, came to the scene, it is said.
Actor and politician Vijay has led his Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) to an impressive electoral victory in the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections. TVK was the single largest party with 108 seats, making it the largest party alone. But it remains 10 seats short of majority 118 in the 234-member Assembly, 10 seats below the majority of 118.
The Congress party also supported TVK, indicating it would support Vijay in establishing the government. But, according to a news report, the Governor was wary of a rush invite to TVK to the government on the stipulation that no clear majority existed. This political uncertainty has raised fears of horse trading, or rival camps luring MPs or politicians from different parties to swap allegiances in Indian politics.
There is the chance of a big political grab. There is an old saying that the very high command in Congress had told D.K. Shivakumar to defend party lawmakers and maintain the political order in the coalition. Well-known for his crisis management skills and ability to maintain a coalition, Shivakumar has previously been very effective in shielding Congress representatives amidst chaos in Karnataka, Maharashtra and beyond.
And the fact that he has been part of that Tamil Nadu maelstrom is viewed as a dangerous sign that the leadership of Congress will be coming down on their heels and creating lots of political noise in the days ahead. The 5 MLAs of the Indian Congress from Tamil Nadu had come to Bengaluru late at night, taking the advice of party leadership, according to authorities. D.K. Shivakumar is himself keeping a vigilant eye on the operation on the matter.
These legislators allegedly lived at a posh private abode just outside of Bengaluru. The move, party insiders said, is aimed at making the effort less likely that opposition forces might try to hoover up or influence the MLAs at a time when the government was being formed.
Whenever coalition governments or fractured mandates have led to political instability, a similar “resort politics” has played out in several Indian states over the last ten years. Elsewhere, Tamil Nadu’s political process in the province increased amidst constant dialogue with alliance partners and self-governing legislative bodies to obtain those numbers required.
Vijay supporters have also held festivals and demonstrations asking the Governor to invite the party to form the government as the single-largest political player in the state. The news has propelled Tamil Nadu into the national spotlight.
The 48 hours ahead are, analysts say, an increasingly important period for the state, whether Vijay succeeds in forming his first government or the state faces a turnover over a long period of political uncertainty.
The headlines are dominated by a frenzy about any potential defections or alliance negotiations, and they are turning to Bengaluru and Chennai, where, behind closed doors, the political calculus is shifting, quickly and quietly.
