This is great news, especially for the coffee planting community living on the Western Ghats that has been long awaiting the first seasonal rains. The low-pressure system as per the IMD bulletin at 8:30 AM today, is a low-pressure area which is currently above the Equatorial Indian Ocean along with the adjacent Southwest Bay of Bengal.
This system has an upper-level cyclonic circulation up to 5.8 km above mean sea level. Meteorologists expect this system to shift west-northwest in the next 24 hours. While most parts of South Interior Karnataka and the North Interior itself will remain dry, this atmospheric shift will bring about light showers in specific spots located near the coast or the heartland of Malnad.
District-Wise Forecast: Who Will Get the Rain?
- Coastal Karnataka: Though Udupi and Uttara Kannada are likely to stay dry, we expect the Dakshina Kannada district will see light rain in around one or two spots.
- Malnad Region: The high-altitude districts of Kodagu, Chikkamagaluru, Hassan and Shivamogga are on high alert for light rain over the next 48 to 72 hours at best.
- Interior Karnataka: The North Interior districts will continue experiencing dry weather. In South Interior Karnataka, the weather will remain arid until February 24, although its minimum temperature will drop a lot some places record temperatures $5^{\circ}C$ below normal.
- Bengaluru City: At night, the state capital is expected to see clear skies as well as some clouds in sight. In particular, there is a possibility of early morning fog and overall temperature will remain somewhere between a maximum for the city's region of 30°C and a minimum of 18°C.
The "Blossom Shower": A Lifeline for Coffee
The timing of this forecast could not be more ideal for coffee producers in Kodagu and Chikkamagaluru. Most farmers are done with coffee and looking up to the skies for so-called "Blossom Showers." Buds tend to form in January and February during the coffee lifecycle. However, these buds must first take hold of rainfall before they will flower and turn into coffee beans, at a rate between 25 and 40 mm.
This early rain is vital for a healthy crop next year. “Lots of farmers are now already deploying sprinklers, the artificial irrigation they would use to protect the buds,” a local planter from Kodagu said. “But natural rain is more effective for a consistent bloom. If this prediction rings true, it will allow us to save thousands of dollars on irrigation and make a better yield in 2027."
Temperature Trends
As the state braces for rain, IMD said the minimum temperature in parts of South Interior Karnataka has witnessed a “noteworthy” dip. To be expected is very little change in both the minimum temperature and average day temperature throughout the rest of the state over the next five days, maintaining the current cool nights and warm days until the clouds move in.
