As the polling concluded Thursday evening, a flurry of exit polls added intense suspense to the results. Most major pollsters have predicted a decisive victory for the BJP-Chief Minister Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena alliance.
- Axis My India: Projects a sweeping win with 131–151 seats (well above the 114 majority mark).
- JVC Exit Poll: Echoes the trend, forecasting 138 seats for Mahayuti.
- Jubilant Data Studio: Predicts a range of 127 to 155 seats for the ruling coalition.
If so, it would be a historic blow to the Thackeray legacy; it would be the first time in nearly four decades (other than a brief interval in the 90s) that a Thackeray-led party has not controlled the BMC.
The Thackeray reunion: A High-Stakes Gamble
The 2026 election witnessed a historic strategic shift as estranged cousins Shiv Sena UBT and MNS set aside years apart to contest together. Running on the image of the Marathi Manoos, and regional pride, they hoped to strengthen the local vote. But exit polls show that this alliance could reach a mere 58 to 68 seats, suggesting that the BJP's "Vikas" (development) message may have taken better appeal with Mumbai's culturally diverse cosmopolitan populace. The Frontlines and Turnout. The 227 wards registered voter turnout averaging 52.94%, slightly lower than 55.53% in 2017.
- Top turnout: Suburban Bhandup (Ward 114) had 64.53%.
- Worst Turnout: Colaba (Ward 227) of South Mumbai had a dismal 20.88%.
In the early morning hours of 10:30 AM today, we see “neck-and-neck” competition in central Mumbai, although the Mahayuti is showing its headstrong dominance in the suburbs and northern wards.
What’s at Stake?
Beyond prestige, the winner will take control of the expansive infrastructure that will transform city infrastructure as well – including the extension of the Coastal Road and the expansion of the Metro network. A win here for the BJP and Eknath Shinde cements their grip on Balasaheb Thackeray’s political legacy. It is a fight for existential relevance in the city that Uddhav and Raj call home.
