Vijay has the biggest challenge in Tamil Nadu because his party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), is set to face a defining majority test in the state Assembly. While 108 seats were won by TVK, which became the single largest party in the Assembly elections, the road to government formation is never easy.
Contrary to initial assumptions that Vijay only needed support from 10 legislators, it now shows that it has to gain the support of at least 12 more MLAs before its majority proves its strength on the House floor. The development comes after adjusting for the two key factors that would contribute to lowering TVK’s effective voting strength during the confidence vote.
Vijay, to give an introduction, has contested from two Assembly constituencies, implying that he's going to vacate one seat after all the post-election process has been done. That will lower the party’s total from 108 to 107. Second, one MLA of TVK will become Speaker of the Assembly.
In the confidence motion, the Speaker is not normally present on the vote, except in case of a tie, the effective strength of TVK during the floor test would be lowered to 106 even. For a simple majority, 118 legislators must support this, in a Tamil Nadu Assembly of 234 members.
With an effective strength of 106 in the trust vote, Vijay would require a minimum of 12 different MLAs, independent candidates or other political parties’ support to reach a majority. Political analysts say the days ahead will be fateful for TVK as the backroom negotiations and alliance negotiations pick up. It is reported that the party leadership is making efforts to rally the support of smaller regional organisations and independent MLAs to stabilise the numbers before the Assembly session.
But failure to earn proper support could be a major political crisis for Vijay and his party. Should TVK not prove a majority in the Assembly, the government could collapse almost from day one of formation. In this case, the Governor can request the second largest party, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), to propose government formation.
Political observers think that DMK may then attempt to build an alternative coalition if TVK doesn’t succeed in the floor test. Left to its own devices, the state could fall under Governor’s Rule if no political party gets majority support.
In a scenario like this, new Assembly elections might be called for if a stable government is not established during specified timeframes, constitutional experts submit. The unfolding political drama has generated massive attention across Tamil Nadu because it marks the first serious challenge to the decades-long dominance of the DMK and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).
Tamil Nadu politics has alternated between these two Dravidian giants for almost 59 years. Vijay’s emergence as a major political force through TVK is being viewed as a historic shift in the state’s political landscape. And supporters of Vijay are upbeat that he will manage to collect the requisite numbers and be appointed the state’s next Chief Minister. On the other hand, opposition parties are watching every political move with an alert since the struggle for power in Tamil Nadu is coming to an acute stage.
