India and Pakistan’s beloved “Mother of All Battles” is under threat of an adverse weather scenario. And as fans worldwide prepare for this Sunday’s clash between the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2026 Group A teams, Sri Lankan news reported that rain most probably will cause disruption to the playing matches at R. Premadasa Stadium.
With both teams advancing to an undefeated start in the Cup and the winner of Group A pitted against one another there was more at stake than ever. Nevertheless a developing low-pressure system in the Bay of Bengal has cast a long shadow over this event.
Weather Forecast: A Wet Sunday in Colombo
Meteorological departments and local weather stations predict a heavy windfall over the island nation on match day as a major weather storm develops.
- The Rain Probability: With today’s forecast showing a 50-70 percent chance of rain throughout matches (7:00 PM to 11:00 PM IST). Some AccuWeather reports even indicate a whopping 93% chance of rain all throughout this day.
- Storm Timing: Heavy thunderstorms are forecast for the late afternoon (between 4:00 PM and 6:00 PM) that could result in an outfield becoming waterlogged and a delayed toss.
- The “Bay of Bengal” Factor: Sri Lanka’s Department of Meteorology is warning that on February 15 in the southeastern Bay of Bengal a low pressure region is going to establish and thus have effect, which, if it develops, will be expected to further increase rainfall throughout the city.
What If the match is Washed Out?
ICC has stringent rules and regulations when it comes to the group stages of the 2026 T20 World Cup:
- No Reserve Day: Unlike in the knockout stages, there is no group-stage match reserve day.
- Point Sharing: In the case that the minimum 5-overs-per-side requirement is not satisfied through rain and the match is declared as a “No Result.” India and Pakistan each receive 1 point apiece.
- A washout would shift both teams to 5 points. Although this would most likely win either a Super 8 spot for the two, it would create some uncertainties over who stands ahead in Group A -- still led by India on Net Run Rate (NRR).
Pitch Conditions and Strategy Recasting
R. Premadasa surface is traditionally a spinner's paradise. But the weather could shift the strategy:
- Spin vs. Seam: If the covers remain on long, moisture may be beneficial for seamers such as Jasprit Bumrah and Shaheen Afridi early on. Conversely, if the match is short, spinners like Varun Chakaravarthy and Shadab Khan will be under severe pressure, adapting to a wet ball.
- Duckworth-Lewis-Stern (DLS) Factor: In a rain-shortened game, the Duckworth-Lewis-Stern (DLS) method plays an overwhelming role, providing the team batting second a slight advantage in most scenarios.
