President Donald Trump confirmed on Thursday the day of the event that trade between Washington and their counterpart in Ottawa could no longer be stifled anymore. The announcement is also a move in the direction of a new type of acrimony, with Trump even promising a 50% tariff on all Canadian planes in the future. The move further inflamed his longstanding diplomatic and economic standoff with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
The Gulfstream Trigger
In a string of incendiary posts on Truth Social, President Trump claimed the Canadian government had “illegally prevented” certification of American Gulfstream jets (i.e., the G500, 600, 700 and 800 models). Trump portrayed the threat of tariffs as a simple act of retaliation in support of American aerospace. “On the basis that Canada has unlawfully, illegally and unswervingly refused to certify the Gulfstream Jets … we are hereby decertifying their Bombardier Global Expresses, and all Aircraft manufactured in Canada,” Trump said.
The President also cautioned that if the situation was not “immediately corrected,” a 50 percent tariff would be levied on any Canadian airplane exported into the United States a path that would cut sharply through Bombardier, Canada’s most important aerospace maker.
The Burning Carney-Trump Feud
The most recent salvo came from after a monthslong hostile public sparring between the two leaders. The tension escalated earlier this month when at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the Prime Minister then Prime Minister Trudeau made a speech widely construed as a rebuttal to Trump’s protectionist directives and urged “middle powers” to withstand economic blackmail. Things worsened again this year:
The China Factor
Trump has only recently threatened that every Canadian export to the United States will face a 100 percent tariff on this year’s goods without exception if Trudeau pursues a so-called “strategic partnership” and trade deal with Beijing. The "Governor" Nickname: Trump calls Carney "Governor Carney" because he used to be Governor of the Bank of England and Bank of Canada, in a tongue-in-cheek comment.
Greenland Dispute
The tensions over new plans to acquire Greenland, for which Carney (along with others) have loudly denounced as an affront to regional sovereignty, has escalated dramatically recently as Trump resumes his drive. Bombardier: Economic Stake The threat of “decertification” plus heavy tariffs has played out in aviation. Bombardier’s Global Express business jets are high-value exports with a strong market share in the United States.
While the FAA's ultimate authority to authorise such a “decertification” is not yet clear, it has caused a lot of market volatility in Canadian aerospace stocks. Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc has described this as Trump “pre-positioning” before the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) which would be the subject of mandatory review later this year. Nevertheless, Carney’s government has maintained a firm stance and said that Canada would not be “on the menu” for great-power coercion.
