The death of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, the notorious "El Mencho," in a high-stakes military raid on February 22, 2026, has decapitated the world’s most violent criminal organization. The killing of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) leader is an important symbolic victory for the Trump administration and the Sheinbaum government, but it poses a trillion-dollar question: Can the death of one man truly hit a global narcotics economy that’s now more diversified, more digital and more resilient than it’s ever been?
The Net Worth of a Ghost: El Mencho’s Billion-Dollar Empire
Quantifying the personal fortune of a man who spent three decades hiding in the shadows is famously hard. But intelligence assessments by the DEA and the U.S. Treasury repeatedly projected El Mencho’s personal net worth in excess of $1 billion. His fortune was not just a mountain of monies but a tangled network of assets overseen by the “Los Cuinis” clan — the financial arm of the CJNG operated by his wife’s family, the González Valencias.
Aside from his own wealth, the CJNG itself is an economic giant. Analysts say the cartel makes $8 billion to $12 billion in annual proceeds from cocaine and crystal meth trade alone. Under El Mencho’s leadership, the group morphed into a “criminal conglomerate,” diversifying its revenue streams into fuel stealing (huachicol), extortion of avocado farmers, human smuggling and high-tech “timeshare fraud” targeting American seniors. This diversification means that while the "CEO" is gone, the "company’s" revenue streams remain largely intact.
The “Hydra” Effect: Why the Economy Won’t Collapse
History says the “kingpin strategy” pull out the head of the snake seldom prevents a flow of drugs. When “El Chapo” Guzmán was apprehended, the Sinaloa Cartel didn’t disappear; rather, it splintered and ultimately regrouped under new leaders and stabilized. The CJNG itself is rooted in a similar, though more paramilitary, franchise infrastructure.
The U.S.-Mexico drug trade today is a trillion-dollar system of transactions that are linked to the legitimate global economy via trade-based money laundering and cryptocurrency. The CJNG has been at the heart of the use of digital assets, where payments for precursor chemicals to Chinese labs have risen 600% in recent years through Bitcoin and Tether. Since these financial networks are decentralized and run by trained "money movers" as opposed to the kingpin, the supply chain is most likely to experience nothing more than a temporary logistical hiccup.
The Dangerous Vacuum: Succession and Violence
El Mencho’s death’s immediate economic toll will be felt in the price of security. If the CJNG splinters into violent factions pitting military leaders like the notorious “El R-3” against financial connoisseurs such as El Mencho’s daughter, Jessica Johanna the conflict brought about could grind trade routes to a halt and affect legitimate businesses in Jalisco and beyond.
In addition to this, rival organizations such as the Sinaloa Cartel could benefit from the seizure of "plazas" or "smuggling corridors," which would drive conflict to peak, in effect raising the "risk premium" for illicit goods. Of course, the prices of fentanyl or meth might swing a tad for the average consumer in the U.S. because of disrupted supply lines, but as long as multi-billion dollar demand remains, a brand-new “billionaire kingpin” is ready to come and fill the void!
