The Islamic Republic of Iran has come to the brink of a big battle as activist groups have reported at least 646 civilian casualties from anti-government protests across the country. The increase in violence is the result of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's statement that although Tehran is ready to have "fair" negotiations in the future, it is "fully prepared for war," after he has made several repeated verbal promises to take the chance on a military intervention by the U.S. president Donald Trump.
The demonstrations, which began their third week on Tuesday, had become the largest challenge to clerical rule since the 1979 Revolution. Starting with economic unrest and a plunging currency, the movement has evolved into a widespread rebellion against the theocracy guided by 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The Human Toll
646 Dead and Growing The confirmed death toll stood at 646, including at least nine minors, the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) reported early Tuesday. The deaths include 512 protesters and 134 members of the security forces the highest figure known to date for regime casualties during any modern protest wave. “The streets are full of blood today,” a witness in Tehran told reporters, even as a nearly complete internet blackout lasting more than 84 hours has made it virtually impossible to establish the whereabouts of the deaths or confirm the deaths.
Activists say the actual number of fatalities is potentially much higher, some calculations put in the region at several thousand people in distant provinces. Tehran’s War Footing. In response to President Trump’s most recent Truth Social posts, where he described that the "USA stands ready to help" the protesters and warned that there were "very strong options," Tehran has taken a defiant stance.
Threats of Retaliation
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf cautioned that if Washington authorized strikes, American military bases in the Middle East and Israel would turn into "legitimate targets." “Ready for Both”: Foreign Minister Araghchi told foreign ambassadors that Iran would not be bullied, adding. “The Islamic Republic is not seeking war, but it is fully prepared for war,” he said, at the same time that he said a line for communication was still available with the envoy from Trump, Steve Witkoff.
Domestic Narrative
The regime is still casting the unrest as “American-Zionist terrorism” and staging the mass pro-government rallies on Monday as a show of force. The Economic Hammer: 25% Tariffs. In parallel with those military concerns, President Trump has mobilized a huge economic weapon. On Monday, he unveiled an “effective immediately” 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran. “Any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States,” Trump added.
That decision is likely to destroy Iran’s last economic links it will create an even broader economic divide and will also require Iran to consider the fate if it chooses global markets from Tehran’s market or the American economy. The Global Response. As the White House prepares to consider a “suite of options” that could include cyber warfare or kinetic strikes, the international community is on high alert. The European Union has blocked all Iranian diplomats from its assembly ground and is considering new sanctions, while Israel has also reportedly mobilized its military on high alert for a possible regional spillover.
