President Donald Trump has issued a clear warning to the Iranian regime that the United States will respond “very hard” if the protesters currently marching across Iran are killed. It comes after protests against the government that rules the Islamic Republic, stoked by widespread economic anger and a wave of anger at the military’s claim that it mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian passenger jet, killing all 176 aboard.
A handful more include: “To the leaders of Iran — DO NOT KILL YOUR PROTESTERS,” Trump tweeted. “Thousands have already been killed or imprisoned on your part — and everybody is looking. But America is watching — above all else. Open up the internet again and let reporters roam free. Stop killing your great Iranian people!” Protests initially organized by the Revolutionary Guard Corps, which admitted recently it was responsible for the Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, have also expanded into much broader anti-government demonstrations.
Demonstrations against the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and officials with power in Tehran, Isfahan and Shiraz have mirrored some of the sweeping demonstrations in the country during November over fuel costs throughout Iran. While human rights groups said that hundreds of people were killed by security forces at those earlier protests and others mentioned were denied by Iranian authorities, which also repeatedly refused to account for them and verified only a few such losses.
The latest wave of protests is a great threat to the Iranian government, which already has to grapple with crippling, United States-imposed sanctions that have taken a major toll on its economy. The crash of the passenger jet — which the authorities claimed to have been caused by a technical failure before there was too much evidence to convince the government to confess — also contributed to public suspicion of the ruling elite. Many Iranians believe they have been betrayed in their government’s premature cover-up and style of addressing the crisis.
President Trump’s warning also illustrates just how tenuous, and highly volatile, the Middle East situation has become. Since American drones killed the top Iranian general, Qassem Soleimani, earlier this month, the U.S. and Iran had come close to war, as Iran launched attacks on missile targets near Iraqi bases from within its army. And even though both sides acknowledged that their behavior had eased after the missile strikes, the Iran situation on today is a further escalation of what was already an on-off relationship.
International affairs are a subject of interest too. The treatment of protesters has been a cause for grave concern in many European countries, including the UK, and with any number of allies. Foreign nations have asked that Iran respect human rights so that they can feel safe in demonstrations. British Ambassador to Iran Rob Macaire was arrested temporarily during a protest in Tehran. It also fueled diplomatic tensions between the two powers.
It must handle internal dissent while also containing external pressure from the United States and its allies. Economic pain that sanctions inflict on the public is a main cause of anger, and a lack of transparency and accountability by the government in relation to the plane crash has only amplified those public grievances. How — and what — the next few days will see from these protests and the general U.S.-Iran relationship. The Iranian state’s willingness to heed Trump’s warning and refuse to commit a brutal crackdown on protesters, or go on another path, is there to be seen. But one thing remains still clear: the world is watching Iran, glued to what it looks like at this moment of critical importance.
