Geopolitical realities have suddenly transformed violently on today, as the United States and Israel mounted an ambitious, synchronized military campaign against Iran. With President Donald Trump announcing “major combat operations” in train and the Iranian IRGC launching a series of reprisals across the Middle East, financial analysts are now sounding the alarm about what could spell a catastrophic “Black Monday” as global markets open on March 2.
A State of War: “Lion’s Roar” and “Epic Fury” Operations
During a series of daylight strikes, Israeli and American forces hit critical infrastructure in Tehran, Isfahan, and Qom. The operation officially known as Operation Lion’s Roar by the IDF and Operation Epic Fury by the US aims to disable Iran’s nuclear capacity and, as President Trump in clear expression, topple the existing regime.
"It is the hour of your freedom," President Trump said in an 8-minute video address, asking the Iranian people to "take over your government."
The strikes have left a high number of casualties, including a school in Minab hit, while Iran has fired waves of drones and ballistic missiles at Israel and US facilities in Bahrain, the UAE, and Qatar.
Market Outlook: One Crash Watch (Monday Morning)
Wall St. is panicking as the thick smoke builds over the Middle East. Even before this weekend’s escalation, the Buffett Indicator had soared to a staggering 220%, pointing to drastic overvaluation of the US market. The swift eruption of a hot war between the world’s biggest economy and a big oil producer is creating a “perfect storm” for a sharp sell-off.
Main Economic Risks of Monday, March 2:
- Oil Price Shock: With the Strait of Hormuz now a warzone, analysts expect crude oil to rocket above $150 a barrel in an instant, spurring an inflation frenzy.
- Safe Haven Flight: A huge exodus from tech stocks (plundering a 1.1% drop last Friday) into gold and US Treasuries on the horizon.
- Global Supply Chain Standstill: The airspace closures across the Middle East (Jordan, Iraq, UAE, and Iran) have already hobbled international logistics.
Financial Sentiment: High Alert
“The markets hate uncertainty, and that’s what a ‘Black Swan’ event looks like,” said one senior strategist. “I’ve seen some bearish technicals on the S&P 500, already. And that a joint US-Israel attack of this scale would make a double-digit percentage drop on Monday a real possibility.”
What to Watch
- Sunday Night Futures: Trading in Asia and US futures will give the first real warning about the damage.
- Iranian retaliation: Any collision with major oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia or the UAE will further panic markets.
- Emergency Fed Action: There have already been rumors of an emergency Sunday meeting by the Federal Reserve to provide banks with liquidity.
